UPS Center
Week 9 recap

UPS CENTER

At the desk: Stuart, Rich & Boomer · Kenny Mayne in the Coffee Shop

Eric Martel scored 328.3 in Week 9, the highest single-week score in league history (regular season, 2011–2026, 2,496 team-weeks). Week 9 recap, built from the league’s own data; an editor has not reviewed it.

1 The Big Story — Eric Martel set the league’s single-week scoring record
Stuart

Eric Martel scored 328.3 in Week 9, the highest single-week score in league history (regular season, 2011–2026, 2,496 team-weeks). The previous record was 325.5 by Steve Bousquet in Week 11 of 2021.

Rich

Scoring has risen across the eras, so here is the other measure. 328.3 was 158.9% of that week’s league average of 206.6, the third-best share on record. Ahead of it: Bear Dunn’s 295.4 in Week 12 of 2017 (176.4%, the best ever) and Steve Bousquet’s 325.5 in Week 11 of 2021 (168.5%).

Stuart

Eric Martel won all three games: Chris Klingenberg by 150.9, Eric Mannila by 119.0, and Bear Dunn by 54.4.

Highest single-week scoresScoreShare of average
2026 · Eric Martel, Week 9328.3158.9%
2021 · Steve Bousquet, Week 11325.5168.5%
2025 · Eric Martel, Week 7320.6145.9%
2026 · Eric Martel, Week 1312.8140.9%
2022 · Steve Bousquet, Week 2311.9147.6%
Highest share of the league averageScoreShare of average
2017 · Bear Dunn, Week 12295.4176.4%
2021 · Steve Bousquet, Week 11325.5168.5%
2026 · Eric Martel, Week 9328.3158.9%
2013 · Shawn Blake, Week 13264.1157.6%
2014 · Derrick Whitman, Week 13251.4153.3%

Regular season only, 2011–2026 so far (2,496 team-weeks; playoff weeks are not counted). Share = a team’s score divided by that week’s league average, so eras can be compared. 2010 is left out because its archived weekly scores conflict with themselves.

Rich

The other story this week: Bear Dunn is on a historic pace.

Stuart

Bear Dunn scored 273.9 in Week 9. Bear Dunn is 21–3 overall and 88–11 in All-Play.

Rich

Bear Dunn has beaten at least nine of the eleven other teams in each of the last 8 weeks; 3 of 2388 past team-weeks (2011–2025) reached a streak that long.

Rich

Here is what 88–11 means. Since 2011, 180 teams have reached Week 9 with a full record in the league archive. Exactly one had a better All-Play record at this point: Josh Martel’s 2018 team, which was 94–5.

Stuart

That is .889 for Bear Dunn. Josh Martel’s 2018 start was .949. After Bear Dunn, the next best starts are Josh Martel’s 2021 team at 78–21 and Ryan Bousquet’s 2014 team at 76–23, then Bear Dunn’s 2020 team at 76–23.

Rich

And 2018 is the part worth sitting with. That team finished 25–1 with a 155–21 All-Play record, the best full season in the archive, and still lost the final. A great start is not a title.

Stuart

Bear Dunn knows both ends of this. In 2021 the start was 25–74 in All-Play at this point. Now it is 88–11 with a 99.97% chance at the first-round bye and a 48.5% chance at the title in the forecast. The next best title odds belong to Eric Martel at 18.5%.

Best All-Play starts through Week 9, 2011–2026Through Week 9PctHow the season ended
2018 · Josh Martel94–5.949Lost the final
2026 · Bear Dunn88–11.889In progress
2021 · Josh Martel78–21.788Third
2014 · Ryan Bousquet76–23.768Champion
2020 · Bear Dunn76–23.768Finished 5th

All-Play counts every team’s weekly score against all eleven others, Weeks 1–9 of the regular season. Source: the league archive of weekly results, 2011–2025, plus the 2026 standings. 2010 is left out because its archived weekly scores conflict with themselves. The finish is the archive’s final standing.

Rich

In Legion of Boom, Shawn Blake is 78.6% to win the division and Derrick Whitman is 21.4%.

2 Division Week — 18 games, two sweeps, the widest margin 150.9 and the closest 9.7
Stuart

DOG POUND 4 LIFE v Outlast PG Time. Eric Martel is the sweep, and you know that part. The pain is on the other side. That makes Eric Martel 6–0 against the division.

Rich

Bear Dunn scored 273.9 and went 2–1: beat Brian Cross by 141.5, Brian Cutting by 49.3; lost to Eric Martel by 54.4.

Stuart

Brian Cutting scored 224.6 and went 2–1: beat Chris Klingenberg by 47.2, Eric Mannila by 15.3; lost to Bear Dunn by 49.3.

Rich

Eric Mannila scored 209.3 and went 1–2: beat Brian Cross by 76.9; lost to Eric Martel by 119.0, Brian Cutting by 15.3.

Stuart

Chris Klingenberg scored 177.4 and went 1–2: beat Brian Cross by 45.0; lost to Eric Martel by 150.9, Brian Cutting by 47.2. Chris Klingenberg is 14–10 overall but 1–5 against the division. Everything won has been won somewhere else.

Rich

Brian Cross scored 132.4 and went 0–3: lost to Bear Dunn by 141.5, Eric Mannila by 76.9, Chris Klingenberg by 45.0. That was the lowest score of the week. Brian Cross is 0–6 inside the division and <0.01% to make the playoffs.

Rich

Brian Cutting and Chris Klingenberg are both 14–10, and the division is Cutting’s at 4.4% to Klingenberg’s 0.02%.

Rich

LEGION OF BOOM v Maddie Mondays. Keith Creelman scored 263.5 and went 3–0: beat Matt Gerardi by 128.7, Derrick Whitman by 76.9, Shawn Blake by 64.0.

Stuart

Shawn Blake scored 199.5 and went 2–1: beat Josh Martel by 27.9, Ryan Bousquet by 22.6; lost to Keith Creelman by 64.0.

Rich

Derrick Whitman scored 186.6, with 43.7 from Jordan Love, and went 2–1: beat Josh Martel by 15.0, Ryan Bousquet by 9.7, the closest game of the week; lost to Keith Creelman by 76.9.

Stuart

Ryan Bousquet scored 176.9 and went 1–2: beat Matt Gerardi by 42.1; lost to Shawn Blake by 22.6, Derrick Whitman by 9.7.

Rich

Josh Martel scored 171.6 and went 1–2: beat Matt Gerardi by 36.8; lost to Shawn Blake by 27.9, Derrick Whitman by 15.0.

Stuart

Matt Gerardi scored 134.8 and went 0–3: lost to Keith Creelman by 128.7, Ryan Bousquet by 42.1, Josh Martel by 36.8. The best possible lineup, 191.0, would have won a game.

Rich

Keith Creelman and Shawn Blake are both 13–11, and the division is Creelman’s at 93.1% to Blake’s 78.6%.

EDITOR REVIEW — Kenny Mayne’s lines are an editor’s job (owner dossier). Pick the lines by adding their message ids to site/wire/data/kenny_picks_2026_wk09.json ({"picks": [{"id": "...", "frame": true, "note": "joke, no digits"}]}); the job then weaves each into its division’s chapter with the link and removes this box. 1 message(s) ruled out by an editor or touching family, health or similar were withheld and must not be used. 47 candidate line(s) are listed, verbatim, linked and grouped by division, in the local review copy only (raw chat stays off the public repo).
DivisionSweptSplitShut out
DOG POUND 4 LIFE v Outlast PG TimeEric Martel 328.3Bear Dunn 273.9, Brian Cutting 224.6, Eric Mannila 209.3, Chris Klingenberg 177.4Brian Cross 132.4
LEGION OF BOOM v Maddie MondaysKeith Creelman 263.5Shawn Blake 199.5, Derrick Whitman 186.6, Ryan Bousquet 176.9, Josh Martel 171.6Matt Gerardi 134.8

Week 9 scores. A team is Swept when it won every game it played in the group, Shut out when it won none and Split otherwise. History lines use the league archive of weekly results (2010 is left out because its archived scores conflict with themselves). Chat lines are owner posts in the league Discord, linked to the message.

3 Elias
EDITOR REVIEW — Elias has not posted official Week 9 changes yet. The Thursday and Friday runs re-check and will update this draft.
4 Playoff Picture — updated after Week 9
Stuart

Here is the shape of it. Four division leaders: Bear Dunn at 99.98% to win Dog Pound 4 Life, Eric Martel at 95.6%, Keith Creelman at 93.1%, and Shawn Blake at 78.6%. Shawn Blake’s is the soft one, with Derrick Whitman at 21.4% sharing the rest.

Rich

Then the wild-card road. Brian Cutting is 97.1% to make the playoffs with only a 4.4% chance of winning the division, so Cutting gets in the other way. Chris Klingenberg is 51.4% with a 0.02% division chance, and Klingenberg is counting entirely on a wild card. Derrick Whitman is 43.8% and Mannila 15.2%.

Stuart

And the bottom: Ryan Bousquet is at 6.3%, Josh Martel at 0.6%, Matt Gerardi at <0.01%, and Brian Cross at <0.01%.

FranchisePlayoffsFirst-round byeWins divisionTitle
C-Town ChivalryBear Dunn99.99%99.97%99.98%48.5%
HammerTime 🔨 ⏰Eric Martel99.97%93.2%95.6%18.5%
Pure GreatnessBrian Cutting97.1%4.1%4.4%18.1%
Real Deal CreelKeith Creelman93.2%0.04%93.1%3.0%
Blake BombersShawn Blake92.4%2.6%78.6%8.6%
HawksChris Klingenberg51.4%0.01%0.02%1.3%
CBPDerrick Whitman43.8%0.04%21.4%1.3%
Cleon Ca$hEric Mannila15.2%<0.01%<0.01%0.6%
L.A. LooksRyan Bousquet6.3%<0.01%6.3%0.1%
Sex MantherJosh Martel0.6%<0.01%0.6%<0.01%
GrideMatt Gerardi<0.01%<0.01%<0.01%<0.01%
The Long HaulersBrian Cross<0.01%<0.01%<0.01%<0.01%

Probabilities updated after Week 9 (Tue Nov 10, 10:02 AM ET), 10,000 simulated seasons. One team wins each division in every simulated season; division odds and the league’s title odds are rounded so each group still adds up to the whole. A probability prints as certain only when the outcome is clinched or eliminated; a figure that would round to certain prints to two decimals, or as <0.01%.

5 The Plays That Made the Week — the bargains, the busts, and who they carried
Stuart

Start with the number nobody had. C.J. Stroud was projected for 15.3 and scored 51.8 for Eric Martel: 21-of-35 for 384 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. That is +36.5, the biggest bargain of the week. Nick Cross added 23.4 against a 9.1 projection.

Rich

Jordan Love was projected for 15.8 and scored 43.7 for Derrick Whitman, another big bargain. Matthew Golden, Matt Gerardi’s receiver, was projected for 12.4 and put up 36.8. CeeDee Lamb, Eric Mannila’s receiver, was projected for 13.8 and put up 37.3.

Stuart

Now the other side. Matt Gerardi started Malik Willis and Ty'Ron Hopper, projected for 15.2 and 8.0, and got 2.9 and 0.0 from them. That is 20.3 projected points that never showed up, and Matt Gerardi still scored 134.8 and went 0–3.

Rich

Eric Martel’s Josh Jacobs went from 14.9 projected to 0.5, and Eric Martel still scored 328.3.

Stuart

On defense, Arvell Reese gave Eric Mannila 26.5 on a 6.4 projection.

The full projection ledger

Offense busts Projected → scored

  1. Bear DunnJaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Bear Dunn)10 targets, 61 air yards · MFL proj. Sun 2:17 PM ET · kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET28.4 → 12.5-15.9
  2. Eric MartelJosh Jacobs (RB, Eric Martel)4 carries · MFL proj. Sun 2:17 PM ET · kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET14.9 → 0.5-14.4
  3. Matt GerardiMalik Willis (QB, Matt Gerardi)25 passes, 230 air yards, 2 carries · MFL proj. Sun 11:57 AM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET15.2 → 2.9-12.3
  4. Chris KlingenbergJared Goff (QB, Chris Klingenberg)25 passes, 148 air yards, 4 carries · MFL proj. Sun 11:57 AM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET17.0 → 5.6-11.4
  5. Derrick WhitmanJonathan Taylor (RB, Derrick Whitman)13 carries, 5 targets · MFL proj. Sun 11:57 AM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET20.2 → 8.8-11.4

Offense bargains Projected → scored

  1. Eric MartelC.J. Stroud (QB, Eric Martel)35 passes, 418 air yards, 2 carries · MFL proj. Sun 2:17 PM ET · kickoff Sun 4:05 PM ET15.3 → 51.8+36.5
  2. Derrick WhitmanJordan Love (QB, Derrick Whitman)29 passes, 384 air yards, 1 carry · MFL proj. Sun 2:17 PM ET · kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET15.8 → 43.7+27.9
  3. Matt GerardiMatthew Golden (WR, Matt Gerardi)10 targets, 120 air yards · MFL proj. Sun 2:17 PM ET · kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET12.4 → 36.8+24.4
  4. Eric MannilaCeeDee Lamb (WR, Eric Mannila)16 targets, 250 air yards · MFL proj. Sun 11:57 AM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET13.8 → 37.3+23.5
  5. Bear DunnJoe Burrow (QB, Bear Dunn)29 passes, 189 air yards, 3 carries · MFL proj. Fri 2:14 PM ET · kickoff Sun 9:30 AM ET16.3 → 38.1+21.8

Defense busts Projected → scored

  1. Matt GerardiTy'Ron Hopper (LB, Matt Gerardi)MFL proj. Sun 2:17 PM ET · kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET8.0 → 0.0-8.0
  2. Josh MartelTuli Tuipulotu (DL, Josh Martel)MFL proj. Sun 2:17 PM ET · kickoff Sun 4:05 PM ET8.1 → 1.0-7.1
  3. Derrick WhitmanHarrison Smith (DB, Derrick Whitman)MFL proj. Sun 2:17 PM ET · kickoff Mon 8:15 PM ET8.5 → 2.6-5.9
  4. Matt GerardiAaron Donald (DL, Matt Gerardi)MFL proj. Sun 11:57 AM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET5.5 → 0.5-5.0
  5. Derrick WhitmanDrake Thomas (LB, Derrick Whitman)MFL proj. Sun 2:17 PM ET · kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET7.3 → 2.5-4.8

Defense bargains Projected → scored

  1. Eric MannilaArvell Reese (LB, Eric Mannila)MFL proj. Sun 11:57 AM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET6.4 → 26.5+20.1
  2. Brian CuttingMyles Garrett (DL, Brian Cutting)MFL proj. Sun 11:57 AM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET4.4 → 21.5+17.1
  3. Josh MartelCarson Schwesinger (LB, Josh Martel)MFL proj. Sun 11:57 AM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET7.1 → 23.5+16.4
  4. Eric MartelNick Cross (DB, Eric Martel)MFL proj. Sun 11:57 AM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET9.1 → 23.4+14.3
  5. Chris KlingenbergGeorge Karlaftis (DL, Chris Klingenberg)MFL proj. Sun 11:57 AM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET6.3 → 20.5+14.2

Started players only. Projection source: each player’s last MFL projection saved before his own kickoff, captured Thu Nov 5, 7:44 PM ET, Fri Nov 6, 2:14 PM ET, Sun Nov 8, 11:57 AM ET and later; every row shows its capture time and the player’s own kickoff, and every capture came first. 185 offensive and defensive starters graded; 1 not graded for want of a pregame capture. Largest gaps among graded starters, not every starter.

6 The Season So Far — who is real, who is rising, and what history says
Stuart

Treat the last three weeks as their own season. In Weeks 7–9, Bear Dunn is 32–1 in All-Play and Eric Martel is 31–2. Those are the only two Dominant teams in the league. The next best are Brian Cutting at 21–12 and Chris Klingenberg at 21–12.

Rich

The movers. Josh Martel climbed from twelfth in scoring in Weeks 1–6 to eighth in Weeks 7–9. Chris Klingenberg climbed from eighth in scoring in Weeks 1–6 to fifth in Weeks 7–9. Shawn Blake fell from second to seventh and is 15–18 over the stretch. Derrick Whitman went from fifth to tenth, and Cross from ninth to twelfth.

Stuart

Then ask what history says about where everyone sits after Week 9. The Survival Line looks at past seasons: of teams with Bear Dunn’s All-Play rank at this point, 16 of 18 made the playoffs; Eric Martel’s group, 16 of 18; Brian Cutting’s group, 18 of 19; Keith Creelman’s group, 4 of 20.

Stuart

At the bottom, Brian Cross is 1 of 17 by All-Play rank and 0 of 5 by wins, and Matt Gerardi is 3 of 17 and 0 of 5. Their odds are <0.01% and <0.01%. Josh Martel is 3 of 17 and 4 of 20, and 0.6%.

Rich

And luck. Josh Martel is +1.8 wins over what the All-Play rate predicts, the most in the league, and Shawn Blake is −1.6, the fewest. Brian Cutting leaves 40.6 points on the bench every week, also the most, and 5 of 10 losses would have been wins with the best lineup.

The standings, Heat Check and Survival Line tables
FranchiseDivisionRecordWeek 9 all-playAll-playPoints for
C-Town ChivalryBear Dunnleader21–310–188–112,423.1
HammerTime 🔨 ⏰Eric Martelleader19–511–077–222,254.4
Pure GreatnessBrian Cutting14–108–360–392,028.4
Blake BombersShawn Blakeleader13–116–559–402,023.8
HawksChris Klingenberg14–104–755–441,851.8
Real Deal CreelKeith Creelmanleader13–119–250–491,958.4
CBPDerrick Whitman13–115–654–451,916.3
Cleon Ca$hEric Mannila12–127–448–511,867.9
L.A. LooksRyan Bousquet9–153–833–661,722.5
Sex MantherJosh Martel7–172–924–751,644.4
GrideMatt Gerardi4–201–1024–751,619.0
The Long HaulersBrian Cross5–190–1122–771,651.6

In the same order as the league standings page: the current playoff field first (division leaders take the top two places), then everyone else; every place goes by all-play percentage, then overall record, then points for, then head-to-head.

Week 9 matchupOur favoriteFinalCalled it?
Bear Dunn vs Brian CrossBear Dunn (87%)273.9–132.4yes
Bear Dunn vs Eric MartelBear Dunn (67%)273.9–328.3no
Bear Dunn vs Brian CuttingBear Dunn (67%)273.9–224.6yes
Shawn Blake vs Ryan BousquetShawn Blake (67%)199.5–176.9yes
Shawn Blake vs Josh MartelShawn Blake (66%)199.5–171.6yes
Keith Creelman vs Matt GerardiKeith Creelman (65%)263.5–134.8yes
Eric Mannila vs Brian CrossEric Mannila (64%)209.3–132.4yes
Chris Klingenberg vs Brian CrossChris Klingenberg (64%)177.4–132.4yes
Brian Cutting vs Chris KlingenbergBrian Cutting (63%)224.6–177.4yes
Eric Martel vs Chris KlingenbergEric Martel (63%)328.3–177.4yes
Brian Cutting vs Eric MannilaBrian Cutting (62%)224.6–209.3yes
Eric Martel vs Eric MannilaEric Martel (62%)328.3–209.3yes
Derrick Whitman vs Ryan BousquetDerrick Whitman (59%)186.6–176.9yes
Derrick Whitman vs Josh MartelDerrick Whitman (58%)186.6–171.6yes
Keith Creelman vs Derrick WhitmanKeith Creelman (55%)263.5–186.6yes
Shawn Blake vs Keith CreelmanShawn Blake (52%)199.5–263.5no
Ryan Bousquet vs Matt GerardiRyan Bousquet (51%)176.9–134.8yes
Josh Martel vs Matt GerardiJosh Martel (51%)171.6–134.8yes

Last week’s published preview, graded against the final scores: favorites won 16 of 18.

Team
Reading
All-Play
Wks 7–9
(season)
Scoring rank
Wks 1–6 → Wks 7–9
Bear Dunn
Dominant
32–1
(88–11)
1st → 1st
Eric Martel
Dominant
31–2
(77–22)
3rd → 2nd
Brian Cutting
Holding
21–12
(60–39)
4th → 3rd
Chris Klingenberg
Holding
21–12
(55–44)
8th → 5th
Eric Mannila
Holding
19–14
(48–51)
7th → 6th
Keith Creelman
Holding
17–16
(50–49)
6th → 4th
Shawn Blake
Cooling
15–18
(59–40)
2nd → 7th
Josh Martel
Rising
13–20
(24–75)
12th → 8th
Derrick Whitman
Cooling
12–21
(54–45)
5th → 10th
Ryan Bousquet
Holding
10–23
(33–66)
10th → 9th
Matt Gerardi
Holding
6–27
(24–75)
11th → 11th
Brian Cross
Sinking
1–32
(22–77)
9th → 12th

Sorted by All-Play over Weeks 7–9; the full-season All-Play record is in parentheses. Reading, applied in order: Dominant = at least 28 of every 33 all-play games in that stretch; Sinking = 5 of every 33 or fewer; Rising / Cooling = scoring rank moved four or more places; otherwise Holding.

TeamLeft on bench / wkLosses the best lineup would have wonWins vs expected
Brian Cutting40.65 of 10−0.7
Eric Martel33.03 of 5+0.6
Chris Klingenberg30.72 of 10+0.5
Matt Gerardi29.48 of 20−1.4
Eric Mannila28.46 of 12+1.0
Derrick Whitman26.65 of 11−0.5
Keith Creelman26.55 of 11+0.5
Ryan Bousquet26.36 of 15+1.2
Shawn Blake25.85 of 11−1.6
Josh Martel24.56 of 17+1.8
Bear Dunn21.22 of 3−0.8
Brian Cross20.14 of 19−0.5

Bench points = the best possible lineup from the same roster, known only after the games, minus the lineup started. Wins vs expected = head-to-head wins minus the wins each week’s all-play rate would give.

TeamCategory, playoffsMade it from the same All-Play rank, 2017–2025Made it with the same win total, 2021–2025
Bear DunnContender
99.99%
16/188/8
Eric MartelContender
99.97%
16/188/8
Brian CuttingContender
97.1%
18/199/16
Keith CreelmanContender
93.2%
4/209/16
Shawn BlakeContender
92.4%
18/199/16
Chris KlingenbergIn the race
51.4%
12/179/16
Derrick WhitmanIn the race
43.8%
12/179/16
Eric MannilaNeeds a run
15.2%
4/209/16
Ryan BousquetLife support
6.3%
3/174/20
Josh MartelLife support
0.6%
3/174/20
Matt GerardiLife support
<0.01%
3/170/5
Brian CrossLife support
<0.01%
1/170/5

“Made it”: teams in the same position after Week 9 of a past season who went on to make the playoffs, out of all such teams. All-Play rank is grouped in pairs (tied teams share the higher rank); win totals are grouped in five bands, among seasons with the same number of games so far. Categories come from this week’s playoff odds: Contender 90% or better, In the field 60–90, In the race 25–60, Needs a run 8–25, Life support under 8.

How this was built — 3 notes
Sources. MFL scores, standings, schedules, transactions and Elias posts; the league’s D1 copies, checked against MFL; MFL projections as saved before each kickoff; nflverse expected points; the archived league Discord.
Status. Automated draft (ups_center_auto.py), generated Tue Nov 10, 12:00 PM ET. Not published.
Editor review. 2 item(s) are marked EDITOR REVIEW in this draft and must be resolved before publication.